Model Odds

The odds that Anthropic ships its next Opus, Sonnet, Haiku or Fable within 7, 14, 30 or 60 days, from the public launch record, with every launch listed and the estimate replayed against the past.

The odds are rebuilt on every load from a two-source-verified ledger of every Anthropic launch since Claude 3, conditioned on how long the current wait has already run, and lifted only when an official surface (the public SDKs, the docs, or Amazon Bedrock) carries a model id the ledger does not yet know. Every launch used is listed on the page with its date.

The figures themselves are live and need JavaScript. LunarWerx Studios builds and operates it.